Know when to prepare

for Social Tension

Forewarned War Kills No Soldier

Riots are becoming more frequent and more costly. Episodes of elevated social tension result in disruptions that directly affect business operations. Social instability represents not only a political or public security challenge, but also imposes substantial economic costs on the business sector, in addition to the scarring effect of lives lost and similar casualties. It is in our collective interest to defuse riots, this is what this issue is about.

A 2025 Warning for the Business Sector

The Brazilian demonstrations of June 2013 generated estimated losses of billions of reais for the Brazilian productive sector. With the IDTS for 2025 indicating even higher and more persistent levels of tension, the risk to business operations is significant and deserves immediate attention.

Companies face multiple impacts during periods of social unrest:

• Disruptions in the supply chain

• Direct and indirect financial losses

• Damage to company image

The preventive value of the IDTS extends beyond the social and political spheres, offering the business sector an anticipatory tool that allows for the adoption of proactive measures before social tensions transform into crises with broad economic impact.

There is an old Brazilian saying that "forewarned war kills no soldier," but in 2013, when millions took to the streets of the country in protests that began over a bus fare rise, authorities and companies were caught completely unprepared. What few perceived: there was a clear warning, hidden in plain sight. Two months before the manifestations erupted, Google searches for activism dramatically spiked, reflected in my index, without a corresponding increase in terms related to social cohesion. This digital signal went unnoticed while the country marched, unconscious, toward the largest wave of demonstrations in a generation, when June offered clear skies, no rain and a temperature of 16 Celsius, perfect for rioting.

Figure 1 shows the index's adjustment to the disturbances of 2013, highlighting the growth of instability, over months, until its eruption in early June, two months after the leading indicator was creeping into the orange alert zone, when an oblivious government increased the bus fares.

Figure 1

Warning Signs Ignored: How Rising Tension Foreshadowed Brazil's 2013 Unrest

The graph tells a story of gathering storms and missed signals. For much of 2012, Brazil’s Dynamic Index for Social Tension (IDTS) drifted quietly below danger thresholds, kept in check by a stable undercurrent of social cohesion. But by November of that year, cracks began to appear. The green line representing social cohesion—a proxy for public tolerance and unity—started a steady descent, and the IDTS began to climb.

By April 2013, the social tension index had pierced the yellow alert level, flashing a warning two months ahead of the nationwide unrest that would erupt in June. Despite these early signs, the government pressed ahead with an unpopular decision: raising public transport fares, even as discontent surged into orange alert territory.

At the time, the unrest had not yet spilled into the streets—but the pressure was mounting. The data suggests that the government was flying blind, or worse, chose to ignore the cockpit alarms. When the riots exploded in June, President Dilma Rousseff’s administration appeared unprepared. Days later, the fare hikes were reversed in a hasty concession. But the damage was already done.

To many observers, the June riots of 2013 marked the beginning of the end for Rousseff’s presidency—an erosion of legitimacy that would culminate in her impeachment two years later. The graph, in retrospect, reads like a seismic monitor before the quake: the signs were there. What was missing was the will—or the wisdom—to act on them.

An Innovative Methodology

The Dynamic Social Tension Index (IDTS, for its acronym in Portuguese) represents a significant advancement in the ability to anticipate social turbulence before it materializes in the streets. Developed through the analysis of historical patterns of social instability, as a constant battle between communion and agency, this index is not based on traditional economic or political indicators, but incorporates fundamental emotional, relational and environmental factors that are rarely considered in social risk analyses, and consequently delivers more in the way of earlier warnings.

Check Figure 2, for the impact of solar activity on the same Social Cohesion and IDTS V.2 as in Figure 1. Obviously, correlation is not causation, but solar activity has been shown to be related to homicides in the U.S., Canada, the U.K, and Germany, and here, to social uprisings. Correlations such as these are hunches that may lead scientific discovery. For now, solar activity serves my purpose: to use it as a contributor to an early warning index for social tension.

Figure 2.

In addition, by interpreting Google searches, the DSTI methodology relies on models from positive psychology, capturing essential dimensions of social well-being.

What makes this approach revolutionary is its understanding that emotional factors linked to cohesion function as "social buffers" that contain collective frustrations. When these buffers deteriorate, even moderate levels of dissatisfaction can trigger disproportionate reactions.

Historical Validation: Predicting the 2013 Protests

So far, the efficacy of this methodology’s structure was proven in its retroactive application to the Brazilian riots of 2013, the France ones of 2018 the Chilean riots of 2019, and to recent uprisings in Spain (none shown here). What makes this result particularly valuable is that none of the conventional indicators of social instability had detected significant risks.

Brazilian Red Alert in 2025

Applying the same validated methodology to Brazilian data from 2015-2025, the IDTS reveals a deeply concerning picture (not shown here). The analysis shows a gradual escalation of social tension starting in 2015, crossing the red alert threshold already in 2017 - coinciding with significant protests that year.

Most alarming, however, is that since 2020 the DSTI has reached and maintained unprecedented critical levels that persist to the present moment. Unlike the pattern observed in 2013, where tension spiked but subsequently retreated after the demonstrations, the 2025 period is characterized by a sustained social tension awaiting a trigger.

This persistent state of red alert represents a substantial risk to Brazilian social stability. The absence of "escape valves" or significant improvements in social cohesion factors creates conditions where any catalyst - be it a controversial political decision, a corruption scandal, a foreign economic crisis, or even a solar storm - could trigger local social reactions of unpredictable magnitude.

Business Strategies for Preparation and Disaster Mitigation

Given the panorama of high social tension in Brazil, the best leaders will not leave it only in God’s hands and seek to prepare their companies to mitigate the consequences:

• Risk assessments are fundamental: which sectors and locations are most vulnerable?

• Business Continuity Plans (BCPs): Reliability and alternatives in the supply chain.

• Employee training: everyone should know the security procedures.

• Connecting the company with security services: staying alert, maintaining open channels of communication.

• The review of insurance coverage cannot be neglected.

By implementing these strategies in an integrated manner, companies significantly increase their resilience in the face of challenges imposed by periods of social instability.

I am so convinced of the accuracy and usefulness of this Index that I intend to make a living on it. But I do not yet know how to. I welcome introduction to clients, invitations for partnerships, suggestions for organization, marketing; the whole thing. Subscribing to this newsletter should also help.